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Economy

Trump's Fresh 50% Tariffs May Look Big, but Analysts Play Down the Likely Impact

Morningstar

July 21, 2026|4 min read

Trump's newly threatened 50% tariffs target Canadian auto, lumber, alcohol, and dairy goods, among others, but most economists view the move as a negotiating tactic and expect the overall economic impact to be relatively muted or modest. Ben Jang, Portfolio Manager at Nicola Wealth, called it a serious escalation, saying the more troubling aspect is the precedent it sets. He noted that until now, most goods qualifying under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement had remained protected from the broader tariff dispute, and that applying tariffs even to CUSMA-compliant goods weakens that shelter. Jang added that this creates considerably more uncertainty for companies making long-term investment, hiring, and production decisions in Canada.

Read more: Trump’s Fresh 50% Tariffs May Look Big, but Analysts Play Down the Likely Impact


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