At a glance:
- Market concentration has reached historic levels, with 7 companies accounting for roughly 38% of the S&P 500
- Concentration amplifies both gains and losses, the same index can deliver very different experiences depending on timing
- Institutional portfolios are designed around risk-adjusted return, not headline performance
- The Canadian pension model has historically delivered returns comparable to traditional publicly traded portfolios, with materially lower volatility
- Diversification across asset classes, including private markets, reduces reliance on any single source of return
- For long-term investors, the more useful question is not whether the portfolio beat the benchmark, but whether it is built to endure
Seven companies now account for roughly 38% of the S&P 500. A decade ago, that figure was closer to 12%.1 It is the highest concentration in the index’s modern history. Additionally, it's price/earnings ratio is near its all-time peak. That concentration has every diversified investor asking the same question: why doesn’t my portfolio look more like the index?
The short answer is that many long-term portfolios are designed to look different from the index, especially when the index becomes narrowly concentrated. The longer answer lies in the evidence supporting institutional, pension-style investing. This article will expound on the case supporting it.
Concentration can be more fragile than it looks
The seven largest U.S. technology companies (the Magnificent Seven) consistently account for roughly 35 to 38% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization. The top ten stocks combined represent roughly 42% of the entire index. In practice, an investor who owns a broad market index is exposed to a small group of names. Concentration cuts both ways. In 2023, the Magnificent Seven returned roughly 76% and contributed more than half of the S&P 500’s total return for the year. In 2022, the same seven stocks fell about 41% while the broader index fell 19%. The remaining 493 companies fell roughly 11%.2 Same index. Very different experience, depending on when an investor stepped in. Periods of extraordinary leadership are also typically periods of extraordinary exposure.
History reinforces this point. For the decade of December 31, 1999, through December 31, 2009, the S&P 500 produced an annualized total return of -0.9%.2 That window began with the index trading at roughly 29 times trailing earnings. It was only the second decade since the 1930s in which U.S. equities posted a negative total return.
In hindsight, the post-1999 starting point was not an obvious moment to abandon diversification. The starting points that felt most promising were often the ones that demanded the most discipline. The lesson is worth considering today, with market concentration at similar levels, and after several consecutive years of strong equity performance.
Public market indices are useful reference points. They show how a particular slice of the market performed over a particular window. But they are not portfolios. They do not consider liabilities, time horizons, liquidity needs, or drawdown tolerance. They certainly do not consider the simple human fact that investors live through the path of returns, not just the average. Put differently, indices describe a market. Institutional portfolios are engineered for an entirely different objective.
The world’s leading pension funds are examples of this. The Canada Pension Plan, Ontario Teachers, CDPQ, and the rest of the colloquially titled "Maple 8" are accountable for paying real obligations to real people, often decades into the future. That accountability shapes every line of the portfolio: how much risk to take, where to find return, which losses are tolerable and which are not. Importantly, it also informs how to behave when markets move sharply in either direction. The same discipline anchors the pension-style approach we apply for our clients.
The right yardstick is risk-adjusted return
Headline returns are the easiest number to compare; they are also the least reliable on their own. Two portfolios can post the same annual return while delivering very different experiences along the way. And they can offer very different odds of sustaining withdrawals over a full retirement. This is why institutional investors often measure returns alongside volatility, drawdowns, and risk-adjusted ratios (industry shorthand for measures like the Sharpe ratio, which captures return earned per unit of risk taken).
On those measures, the institutional approach has held up well. A 2025 study by the Global Association of Risk Professionals and APTimum compared the Maple 8 against passive benchmarks across five-, ten-, and twenty-year windows. The Canadian pension model produced portfolio volatility of roughly 7.9% per year. A passive 70/30 mix posted 10.3% over the same periods, with 60/40 coming in at 9.2%. The Maple 8’s Sharpe ratio sat near 0.90, with an information ratio of 1.4.4 Put plainly: similar long-run returns, materially less turbulence along the way, and a meaningfully better return per unit of risk taken.
CPP Investments’ May 2026 fiscal-year results echo the point. The fund finished its fiscal year at $793.3 billion in net assets, with a 10-year annualized net return of 8.8% and a fiscal-year net return of 7.8%.5 Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute data over a comparable trailing window placed CPP’s 10-year return ahead of large passively managed peers. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund posted 5.5%. Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management posted 6.7%. Taiwan’s Bureau of Labor Funds posted 5.2%. The data is not ambiguous. Higher returns with lower volatility is the documented track record of this model.
The Canadian Pension model as a real-world test
A common question is whether the institutional approach simply adds cost without improving on a passive benchmark. The evidence offers a compelling answer.
Research led by Professor Sébastien Betermier of McGill University, in partnership with CEM Benchmarking, examined approximately 250 pension plans across 11 countries over five-, fifteen-, and twenty-year windows. Canadian plans delivered an average return of about 8%, versus 6% for their global peers. Their value added was roughly three times higher (about 60 basis points versus 20).6 Subsequent work summarized in Institutional Investor (2023) attributed the gap to structural choices: more than half of assets managed in-house (versus less than a quarter for global peers), double the allocation to real assets, and disciplined long-horizon governance.
Other countries have noticed. The U.K.’s Local Government Pension Scheme is consolidating into Canadian-style pools. Australia’s Future Fund has built a 120-person internal team explicitly modelled on Ontario Teachers and CPP Investments. Sovereign funds across the Middle East have hired heavily from Canadian pensions to replicate the platform.
The model is being benchmarked against, and in some cases adopted, and adapted by institutions around the world. That is not a narrative. It is track record.
Diversification that actually diversifies
Institutional portfolios are built across multiple sources of return: global public equities, private equity, private credit, infrastructure, commercial real estate, and other income-oriented strategies.
These asset classes are selected not only for their individual return potential, but for how they behave together. Different assets respond differently to inflation, interest rates, growth shocks, and market sentiment. Combined thoughtfully, the portfolio becomes less reliant on any single driver.
CEM Benchmarking, an independent firm that has tracked institutional investor performance for more than three decades, recently published a 25-year asset class study (1998 to 2022). It draws on actual results from more than 200 pension funds managing in excess of $4 trillion. Over that period, listed REITs delivered 9.74% annualized net returns. Private real estate delivered 7.66%. Both showed relatively low correlations to broad public equities and fixed income.7 These are the building blocks behind the steadier multi-asset return profiles observed amongst institutional investors.
Private markets, however, are not a free lunch in any given year. In 2023, pension funds globally produced a -1.4% net value added against their benchmarks. Private equity and real assets were the main drag. The 10-year and 30-year averages, however, remained positive at roughly 17 to 18 basis points annualized.8
The lesson is not that private markets always outperform. It is that their value is captured by patient capital across cycles, not in any single year. That patience is the advantage that institutional investors, and long-term clients, can bring.
Volatility, drawdowns, and the sequence-of-returns problem
How the return is delivered matters as much as whether it arrives. Academic work on the "sequence of returns" (most prominently by Dr. Wade Pfau) has produced a striking result. Two savers with identical career paths, identical contribution patterns, and even identical average returns can finish in materially different financial positions. The reason is the order in which good and bad years arrive.9 Vulnerability peaks in the years immediately before and after retirement, when contributions slow and withdrawals begin. A 30% drawdown experienced at 65 is not the same financial event as a 30% drawdown experienced at 35.
Pension funds and institutional investors often design around this reality. They hold liquidity to meet obligations without being forced to sell into weakness. They moderate drawdowns through diversification across return drivers. They size positions so that no single shock can derail the long-term plan. Individual investors face a comparable challenge approaching retirement. Protecting against the wrong sequence of returns is often more valuable than chasing the right one.
Reframing the question
Taken together, the evidence suggests a more useful question for long-term investors than the one the headlines usually ask. The headline question is usually something like, "Did the portfolio beat the benchmark last year?" It is a reasonable question–and an incomplete one. It says nothing about volatility. It says nothing about drawdowns. It says nothing about whether the portfolio was built to support the investor through the next downturn, or only to keep pace with the last upswing.
The better question, and the one institutional investors are built to answer, is: “Is the portfolio built to endure?” That question forces an honest accounting of risk, time horizon, and the realities of compounding through cycles. It is the question we believe every long-term investor deserves to ask, and to have answered.
A quiet advantage, by design
Pension-style investing will not lead every year. It is not designed to. In environments where a narrow set of public market leaders are rewarded most generously, diversified portfolios can look subdued by comparison. That is the trade off, and it is a deliberate one.
What the evidence shows, repeatedly across decades, is that steadier compounding, portfolios engineered around risk-adjusted return, real diversification, and a multi-cycle time horizon tend to produce smaller drawdowns and more reliable outcomes for the people who rely on them. The purpose is not to follow the market every quarter, but to build resilience that compounds across every decade. For our clients, that is also the principle that guides our approach.
- 1
Goldman Sachs Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence, "Magnificent Seven Now Make Up a Record 38% of the S&P 500's Market Cap," reported by MarketSpeaker, Nov. 22, 2025; The Motley Fool, "The Magnificent Seven's Market Cap vs. the S&P 500," May 13, 2026.
- 2
S&P Global Market Intelligence and Bloomberg, compiled by The Motley Fool and FinancialContent, 2025.
- 3
Renaissance Research and FactSet, "The Lost Decade, Revisited," AMG Wealth, September 2022.
- 4
Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and APTimum, Maple-8 benchmarking study, 2025.
- 5
CPP Investments, "Net Assets Total $793.3 Billion at 2026 Fiscal Year End," press release, May 20, 2026.
- 6
Sébastien Betermier (McGill University, Desautels Faculty of Management) with CEM Benchmarking, summarized in Benefits Canada, May 2022, and Institutional Investor, November 2023.
- 7
CEM Benchmarking, 25-Year Asset Class Study (1998–2022), summarized in Nareit Research Note, November 2024.
- 8
CEM Benchmarking, Fall 2024 Peer Intelligence, 2024.
- 9
Wade D. Pfau, The Lifetime Sequence of Returns: A Retirement Planning Conundrum, SSRN working paper.
Disclaimer
This material contains the current opinions of the author, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Please speak to your Nicola Wealth advisor for advice based on your unique circumstances. Nicola Wealth Management Ltd. (Nicola Wealth) is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer, and Investment Fund Manager with the required securities commissions.
