Q2 2026 Outlook
From market volatility and geopolitical change to opportunities in private capital and real estate, our Q2 2026 Outlook explores the themes shaping today's investment landscape.
Our Outlook
In our quarterly Outlook events, Nicola Wealth’s investment leaders examine the forces reshaping the market and share how to navigate uncertainty, manage risks, and uncover opportunities.
A Changing Global Landscape
Markets are shifting and underlying risks are building. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, equities remain near historic highs, raising concerns that investors may be underestimating longer-term impacts. When markets move in cycles, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective.
Positioning For Volatility
While markets have been resilient in recent months, elevated valuations and rising risks could lead to more uneven returns. We believe a diversified, disciplined approach is integral to keeping a resilient portfolio that’s set to capture opportunities.
Executing with Discipline
Across public, private, and real estate markets, shifting conditions are driving a focus on stronger valuations, fundamentals, and stability. Through disciplined management and diversification, investors can identify key risks and opportunities.
Stay Ahead
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“Markets are becoming more complex and interconnected, but disciplined positioning across asset classes remains key to delivering long-term outcomes.”
Chris Nicola
Chief Executive Officer
This material contains the current opinions of the presenter, and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. Please speak to your Nicola Wealth Advisor regarding your unique situation. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.
Returns are net of fund expenses charged to date. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. This is not a sales solicitation. This investment is intended for tax residents of Canada who are accredited investors. Residency restrictions apply. Please read the relevant documentation for additional details and important disclosure information, including terms of redemption and limited liquidity.
This summary contains targeted returns; actual returns may vary.
The 60/40 Model Portfolio (minus 1% management fee) is made up of the following constituents: Citi World Government Bond less 19bps fee (Weight 16%), FTSE TMX DEX Universe Bond less 33bps (24%), MSCI World less 46 bps fee (24%) , S&P TSX Composite less 17 bps fee (36%).
The Nicola Core Composite returns represent the total Canadian dollar returns of all fee-paying portfolios with a Nicola Core mandate. The composite includes clients who are both fully discretionary and nondiscretionary. Historical net of fee composite performance returns are calculated using individual realized time-weighted client returns net of fees and is presented before tax. The Nicola Wealth inclusion policy is based on clients’ weights at calendar month end. The composite returns are asset-weighted based upon ending monthly market value. The Nicola Core mandate may change throughout time. Additional information regarding policies for calculating and reporting returns is available upon request. The composite returns presented represent past performance and are not a reliable indicator of future results, which may vary; returns are calculated as found here. Nicola Wealth is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’commissions.
Comparisons of the historical performance of Nicola Wealth funds or models to the historical performance of indexes, mutual funds or other investment vehicles should only be undertaken with consideration of the differences that exist between the underlying investments that comprise the compared investment vehicles. Indexes may be primarily composed of a single asset type/asset class (i.e. 100% equities or 100% bonds) whereas Nicola Wealth funds may or may not contain a combination of exchange-traded equities, marketable bonds, private investments, other alternative investment classes and exempt products. When making any comparison of historical performance, these differences and their impact on the performance of each comparable should be taken into account.
Morningstar Canadian Neutral Balanced is a proprietary index developed by Morningstar Canada based on the CIFSC Fund categories (www.cifsc.org). This index includes funds which meet the following criteria: Funds in the Canadian Neutral Balanced category must invest at least 70% of total assets in a combination of equity securities domiciled in Canada and Canadian dollar-denominated fixed income securities and between 40% and 60% of their total assets in equity securities.
The performance comparisons provided in this document are based on the best available information at the time of preparation and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to ensure accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of third-party data, and no liability is assumed for any errors or omissions.
The material should not be relied upon in isolation, as it may be incomplete or lack the necessary context provided during the oral presentation.
Nicola Wealth Management Ltd. (Nicola Wealth) is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required securities commissions.
At the time of recording the following securities are held by Nicola Wealth:
Kering SA - KER FP
Mercedes-Benz GR - MBG GY
Waste Connections Inc - WCN CN
Novo Nordisk A/S - NOVOB DC
Mention of these securities is not a recommendation to buy or to sell.