Market Commentary: Gold vs. Bitcoin, Trade Wars, the Powell Pivot and the Canadian Economy.
PODCAST July 5, 2019
With mixed signals coming from stock and bond markets, no end in sight to U.S./China trade wars, and a potential war brewing in the Middle East, Rob Edel provides his insights on the current state of markets and what we might expect going forward.
Nicola Wealth Financial Advisor Ethan Astaneh hosts with Nicola Wealth CIO ROb Edel as the two discuss how things have evolved over the past couple of months for the global economy, what stock and bond markets are currently telling us, and which key factors are driving recent developments.
They also dive into how the U.S.’s efforts in the Middle East may be impacting the trajectory of the global economy, and the Powell pivot, notable development with the EU economy, and his short and long-term predictions for the Canadian economy.
Join host, Ethan Astaneh, and recurring guest, Rob Edel, to hear this quarter’s Market Commentary!
[:28] About today’s episode.
[:52] How have things evolved over the past few months for the global economy? What are the stock and bond markets telling us? And what key factors are driving recent developments?
[2:34] Historically, when the bond market is pessimistic and the stock market might be optimistic, which one tends to be right? Is there enough information to draw a pattern?
[3:50] As gold and bitcoin have been going on a bit of a run, what does Rob see as the driving force behind this? Has the case for those asset classes changed? Rob also highlights Facebook’s new cryptocurrency, Libra.
[7:35] Rob brings us up to speed on how the U.S./China relationship has evolved over the last couple of months and gives his predictions on how the trade war may play out from here.
[9:09] Due to trade tensions, do we have to worry about inflation even though we’re not seeing significant global growth or slowing growth?
[10:50] Is the U.S. better positioned to ride out the tensions of the trade war in the short-term than China?
[13:10] Rob theorizes why China may have not been retaliating or coming down with measures that might be more direct towards the U.S.
[15:15] How might the United States’ efforts with the Middle East impact the trajectory of the global economy?
[17:40] Rob speaks about the Powell pivot and the challenges that Jerome Powell may be facing in his role as Chairman between now and the upcoming U.S. election?
[20:49] If Jerome Powell cuts rates and we see a lowering in the U.S. dollar, how does that impact the emerging economies?
[21:27] Has there been any notable development with the EU economy that we may have missed in the news due to Brexit being all over the headlines?
[23:36] Rob gives his short-term and medium-term predictions of the Canadian economy; factoring in the upcoming 2019 election, the slowing U.S. economy that Canada is heavily tied to, their own relationship with China, the approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline, and the increase in the price of oil due to the tensions in the Middle East.
[25:44] A few months ago, Rob predicted we would not be expecting a recession this year or the next. Has that prediction changed considering recent events?
[26:21] Does Rob think that there will continue to be more pressure going into the election from the White House to the Fed?
[27:10] Ethan thanks Rob for joining him this episode.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Rob is the Chief Investment Officer at Nicola Wealth.
Before joining the team at Nicola Wealth, Rob spent nine years working for one of Canada’s largest money managers and — most recently — as a Portfolio Manager responsible for managing U.S. equities for the firm’s high net worth clients. Previous to that, he spent seven years working for the Treasury Department of a Major Canadian Chartered Bank, splitting his time between Vancouver and Toronto. Rob has completed his CFA and is a member of the Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR).
About the Host — Ethan Astaneh
Ethan is a Financial Advisor in the firm’s Vancouver office. He provides strategic advice to high net worth business owners, professionals and retirees, and offers his clients a wide range of financial services, including: retirement income planning, business succession and continuation planning, investment management, tax and estate planning, charitable giving, and intergenerational wealth transfer.
For his full bio, visit: NicolaWealth.com/Our-Team/Ethan-Astaneh
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This presentation contains the current opinions of the presenter and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. Please speak to your Nicola Wealth Advisor regarding your unique situation. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Nicola Wealth fund returns are quoted net of fund-level expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. Projected returns are estimates only. Returns are not guaranteed. NWM is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’ commissions in Canada.